The Colliers Industry Roundtable was a full house and then some at the Four Seasons this morning. Tim & Ken Perlman from the Sullivan Group opened with national economic outlook indicating that recovery will lag, national unemployment will more than likely hit 10 maybe 11 percent by the end of 2009, early 2010 but at least he just saved a bunch of money on his car insurance by…
Yes, the talks were a little like laughing during a funeral, especially considering that the overall outlook was dismal at best. The Sullivan Group continued with the residential market and employment crisis. The end result was that assuming City Center is able to produce the visitor volume expected and more jobs are created, the fact remains that the average hotel, gaming and hospitality worker makes a reported income of $25,000 a year. If you assume tips and unreported income can bring them to the $45,000 year level then the housing market could recover because of the low value of homes in the $150,000 range. My question is still how would someone in the $25,000 a year reported income manage to find a loan for $150,000 given the new restrictions from banks on loans? Unfortunately, this is the life we are in and we as a nation will just have to live through it.
John Matt Stater of Colliers closed with a brief outlook on the Commercial Real Estate market, a nail in the coffin of the current economy as we saw a 95 month supply of office sitting empty with Retail and Industrial numbers not too far behind. A much worse outlook than the 4-month supply of residential housing mentioned by the Sullivan Group.
Ultimately the overall theme was that recovery would not happen until people in our city have jobs, unfortunately we will more than likely continue to see job losses through 2010, so don’t expect our markets to begin a recovery until at least early 2013.